What should Justin Trudeau do post-separation?

Canada’s Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his wife, Sophie Grégoire Trudeau, have jointly announced on their Instagram accounts that they are separating after eighteen years of marriage:

Hi everyone, Sophie and I would like to share the fact that after many meaningful and difficult conversations, we have made the decision to separate. As always, we remain a close family with deep love and respect for each other and for everything we have built and will continue to build. For the well-being of our children, we ask that you respect our and their privacy. Thank you.

The Prime Minister’s Office released a statement that Trudeau and Grégoire Trudeau had “signed a legal separation agreement” and “worked to ensure that all legal and ethical steps with regards to their decision to separate have been taken, and will continue to do so moving forward.”

Most Canadians were understandably reserved in their feelings about this unfortunate announcement. No matter what they think about Trudeau as a prime minister and world leader, this was a private family matter. The collapse of around one in three marriages in Western society means that many have either been involved in something similar, have friends and/or family members who have experienced it or both. Separation and divorce is never easy. It can also be quite painful, especially for young ones who get caught in a situation that was not of their own making. This decision will undoubtedly affect the Trudeaus and their three young children profoundly. 

But there are other, less personal components of this announcement that will be — and should be — examined in the days, weeks, months and years to come. In particular, will Trudeau’s separation from his wife have any direct effect on the Canadian political process?

It’s uncommon for a world leader to separate from a spouse while still in office, but not completely unheard of. Canada witnessed this several decades ago. Ironically, it involved the current PM’s father and mother. Then-prime minister Pierre Trudeau separated from his wife, Margaret, in 1977 after six years of marriage. They divorced in 1983. 

The elder Trudeau lost the May 1979 election to Joe Clark and the Progressive Conservatives. He announced his impending retirement from politics, but watched in amazement as the minority PC government unexpectedly fell when it couldn’t get its budget passed. Trudeau led his Liberal party into the February 1980 election and ended up winning a majority.

It’s fair to say the collapse of his marriage had little to no bearing on these two federal elections. Whatever Canadians personally felt about this matter at the time — and attitudes about marriage and divorce were quite different — they parked their votes based on the country’s political and economic future.

Justin Trudeau will obviously be hoping for history to repeat itself. In turn, his senior advisers would be wise to suggest subtle things the PM should consider doing to modify his public image before the next federal election. 

Trudeau isn’t trusted when it comes to handling the domestic economy or balancing his personal checkbook. His list of failures, blunders and gaffes is enormous. Three instances of blackface. The two-planes controversy during the 2019 federal election. Guilty of two ethics violations on three separate inquiries, the most of any Canadian prime minister in history. Public spats with (mostly) female Members of Parliament and cabinet ministers. Using nonsensical lines like “peoplekind” and “the budget will balance itself.” Mishandling the Freedom Convoy and calling it a “small fringe minority of people” with “unacceptable views.” Taking a knee during Black Lives Matter in front of TV cameras. Comments about admiring China’s economy (later explained away as a joke), and a glowing tribute to the late Cuban dictator Fidel Castro as a “remarkable leader” (which wasn’t a joke). Wasting taxpayer dollars on ridiculed programs like a federal carbon tax, national dental care, voluntary euthanasia, legalized marijuana, Covid spending and so forth.

So this is a unique opportunity for Trudeau to reset his personal and political game face. He needs to be more compassionate and less arrogant as a leader. He needs to be more open to discussing ideas and less closed to differing points of view. And, above all, he needs to be a caring partner to his newly-separated wife, and doting father to his children, in spite of the difficult circumstances his family currently faces.

Can he do it? History strongly suggests “no,” but anything is possible.

This article was originally published on The Spectator’s UK website.