Why Trump won South Carolina

Elvis has left the building.

So has Trump, and he left victorious.

The “primary show” will have a few encores, mainly on March 5 (Super Tuesday), when multiple states vote, but the outcome is certain. With his decisive win in South Carolina, Donald Trump effectively clinched the Republican nomination. He easily defeated his last opponent, Nikki Haley, in her home state.

Trump’s victory there follows those in Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada. Trump has carried every state. No one else has come close.

Why did Trump win? For two reasons. First, the voters in these contests are the party’s activist base, and Trump fundamentally reshaped that base during his first run for president and his White House years. He moved the party sharply away from its center-right traditions toward populism, away from free trade and international alliances toward nationalism. His slogan, “America First,” encapsulates those changes. So do his strenuous efforts to limit illegal immigration and roll back the Administrative State.

Second, the former president remained atop the party because his campaign appearances reassured the base that he is the same energetic, entertaining, anti-Establishment candidate they have supported ever since he rode down the Trump Tower escalator in 2015. They like his policies; they love his attacks on entrenched elites; they think the legal cases against him are unfair, political prosecutions; and they firmly believe he can defeat a weak President Biden. They see no compelling reason to switch their allegiance to another Republican.

The depth and durability of this bond between Trump and his supporters is obvious now, but it wasn’t when the primary season began. Trump asserted it quickly, beginning in Iowa. That conservative state was the most favorable terrain for Florida governor Ron DeSantis, who put all his chips there. He was backed by the state’s popular governor and its most influential Evangelical leader. None of it mattered. DeSantis lost all ninety-nine counties and, with them, his chance of displacing Trump.

Nikki Haley’s best chances were in New Hampshire and South Carolina. That’s where her candidacy was entombed. New Hampshire seemed attractive because the party’s voters are more moderate than in most states and because the state permits Democrats and Independents to vote in the Republican primary. She was backed by the state’s governor, Chris Sununu, and his state-wide organization. Still, she lost.

Her next state, Nevada, was even worse because Haley actually lost to “none of the above.” That’s the electoral equivalent of being turned down for the prom because your date “has to stay home and wash her hair.”

Despite that embarrassing defeat, Haley remained upbeat campaigning across South Carolina, where voters know her well and generally like her. Her loss there effectively ends her chances to defeat Trump. Though Haley has vowed to stay in the race at least through Super Tuesday, she cannot recover from a twenty-point loss in her home state.

Haley’s main selling point had been her advantage in the November election. Polls show she has a better chance of defeating Joe Biden than Donald Trump. Yet that argument failed to sway primary voters for a couple of reasons. First, they believe, rightly or wrongly, that Trump can win in November. Second, they have real doubts about Haley’s commitment to Trump’s populist agenda, an agenda they strongly support. They see her as too close to the more traditional, internationalist wing of the party, led by Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, and too likely to bend to Establishment pressures in Washington.

Haley could still pose a threat to Trump, even after losing in the primaries. She hasn’t ruled out a third-party run in the General Election. That’s a longshot and would end her career as a Republican. The key to watch is whether she endorses Trump soon after dropping out.

The most surprising development of the campaign season was DeSantis’ quick and early defeat. When the race began, many thought he could win the nomination. He certainly had the résumé. Not only has he governed Florida successfully, he has proven his populist credentials by fighting the Disney Corporation and its woke agenda and defying Washington’s effort to shut down the state’s schools and economy over Covid (an effort begun under Trump).

Under DeSantis’s leadership, people and companies have flocked to Florida, drawn by a pro-business climate, anti-crime policies and zero income taxes. The result has been robust economic growth and a significant shift in partisan alignment. DeSantis turned a purple state, where he barely won his first race for governor, into a solidly red one, where he not only won reelection easily but carried the entire slate of state-wide offices. Democrats were completely shut out.

Those achievements should have made DeSantis a strong contender for the nomination. Instead, he hardly made it out of the starting blocks. Part of the problem was marketing. He’s not a natural on the stump and made a fundamental mistake in trying to run to Trump’s right on social issues, only to find the voters weren’t interested. But those weren’t his main problems. What really killed DeSantis’ chances, as well as Haley’s, Tim Scott’s, Vivek Ramaswamy’s and others is that Donald Trump still has a firm hold on the party because his old supporters still love him. They were with him in 2016 and 2020 and they still are, despite the party’s repeated losses since he won the presidency.

That steadfast backing is the main lesson of the 2024 Republican primaries. Trump’s supporters can’t be peeled off. It’s still his party. He demonstrated that once again on Saturday.

With that challenge behind him, he now faces an even more formidable one. To win in November, he needs to move beyond his loyal base and convince others to overcome their reservations and vote for him.

Expect both parties to wage nasty, negative campaigns. Neither Trump nor Biden will be sending sunny, upbeat messages. They will be shouting, “Vote against my opponent. He’s not just bad. He’s dangerous.” You will hear a lot less “vote for me” and a lot more “don’t vote for him.”