Who will save Republicans from themselves?

What’d I miss? The week I chose to take off (thanks to my colleagues for keeping the DC Diary show on the road) was the worst for Republicans in a while. The last Republican president and the party’s 2024 frontrunner was arrested and charged in Manhattan. In a high-stakes, big-spending Wisconsin Supreme Court race, voters delivered a thumping progressive victory and a clear thumbs down to the Republican stance on abortion in the Dobbs era. 

Meanwhile, GOP donors are reportedly going wobbly on the man many hoped would swoop in and save the party. Ron DeSantis is struggling to make himself heard over the Trump-arrest cacophony. His polling progress has stalled and, with abortion back in the headlines, the Florida governor is set to sign a six-week abortion ban into law — a move that puts him at odds with a large majority of voters on this salient issue. Back in Washington, House Republicans seem as divided as ever. An explosive New York Times report on Thursday revealed a leadership team at odds with one another and has reopened the wounds that caused Kevin McCarthy such pain when he secured the speakership. A toxic brew of personality and policy differences suggest a caucus too busy fighting itself to provide effective opposition. Not great, Bob! 

For Republicans, the thing that should be especially dispiriting about these developments isn’t that they made for a week of bad headlines, but that they are a taste of what is to come. Trump’s legal woes are likely to continue, as will the obsessive focus on the former president from media outlets desperate for a return to Trump-era ratings and readerships. The politics of abortion isn’t about to get any less difficult, with America’s pro-life party in dire need of talking about the issue in a way that appeals to the large, unspoken-for middle on the issue. The presidential primary, for the time being at least, looks like a two-horse race.

Republicans determined to correct course after underperforming in three consecutive election cycles have, understandably, been focused on who is leading their party. Some have said it out loud, others utter it to themselves: moving on from Trump is a must. But it is increasingly clear that this is a necessary but not sufficient condition of future victory. Trump or no Trump, the party is on the losing side of a trade in which it loses middle-class suburbanites in exchange for white, working-class, rural voters. It must ask itself how to tilt that balance back in its favor. In between daydreams about a multi-racial working class party, it must get serious about winning back the voters it has lost.   

It is a mistake, of course, to talk about political parties as though they are a single entity. That’s never been the case, but is arguably less true now than ever before. Once you realize that, questions like “why is the GOP its own worst enemy?” or “why don’t Democrats ditch the woke nonsense and win big majorities?” become a lot less mysterious. It’s not exactly hard to see that today’s Republican Party is a very loosely connected coalition of factions and interest groups. More difficult is seeing who will be able to wrangle those groups and get them marching under a banner that appeals to a majority of the country. 

On our radar

Biden hints at 2024 run… again Worst. Re-election. Announcement. Ever. A cocktail of election law, Democratic party politics, his age and his unpopularity has lent a surreal character to the buildup to Joe Biden’s announcement of his plan to run again. The president intermittently says he plans to run but won’t say he’s running. He’ll announce plans for an announcement, but not actually, well, announce. The latest instance of this tedious charade came at the White House Easter Egg Roll, where Biden told Al Roker that he plans “at least three or four Easter Egg rolls, maybe five, maybe six… I plan on running Al, but we’re not prepared to announce it yet.” Yawn.

Casey announces re-election bid Pennsylvania Democrat Bob Casey has announced he will seek another term in the US Senate next November. Victory in the Keystone State will, once again, be crucial to Democratic hopes of maintaining control of the Senate.

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The intelligence leak is a blow to America’s reputation

A major intelligence leak rocked the US this past weekend, impacting everything from Ukraine’s battlefield plans to America’s relations with Israel and South Korea. The documents were disseminated on various internet chat groups beginning in January, and it is not currently known how the material was acquired, though the situation points to someone within the intelligence organizations themselves. The sensitive information was shared as photos of printed documents, which may aid in the investigation. Some of the documents have been manipulated.

Though the material is mostly dated from the end of February, reports indicate that Ukraine has modified its offensive plans due to the leak. Some of the documents also provide a bleak image of the state of Ukraine’s air defenses, postulating that by May much of their ammunition will be spent. This could give the Russian air force the capacity to launch sorties much deeper into Ukraine and fundamentally alter the conditions on the ground. The West can still rectify this situation, however, through faster and more numerous transfers of air defenses.

Other information in the leak included intelligence on Mossad — Israel’s CIA — indicating that the agency had sided with protesters opposed to the government’s judicial reforms. Israel refutes this claim, but it surely will not help smooth strained relations with the US. South Korea also featured in the material, with intelligence analyzing Seoul’s concerns over providing arms to the US to restock American ammunition supplies depleted by the war in Ukraine. The South Koreans wanted to be sure the materiel did not make its way to Kyiv. 

There is much more in the information leak, but the point is clear: America’s reputation will be harmed by this fiasco.

–John Pietro

Once again, Cockburn is ahead of the pack

New York magazine’s Olivia Nuzzi is bathing in praise after profiling Stormy Daniels for a cover story. The piece opens with a full recounting of Stormy giving Nuzzi a tarot card reading — and makes mention of how Daniels “sees dead people” and travels with a “possessed” doll called Susan. All super original stuff… that was covered in Cockburn’s tarot reading by Stormy back in December, which you can read here. New York magazine: last year’s ideas, now! 

–Cockburn

From the site

Oliver Bateman: Homeschooling is having a moment
Lionel Shriver: Democrats are desperate for Trump
Katherine Dee: Is trans trending downward?

Poll watch

PRESIDENT BIDEN JOB APPROVAL

Approve 43.9% | Disapprove 53.0% | Net approval -9.1 (RCP average)

PERCENT OF AMERICANS WHO THINK TRUMP INTENTIONALLY DID SOMETHING ILLEGAL IN NEW YORK CASE

All voters 53% | Democrats: 87% | Republicans: 19% | Independents: 57% (ABC News/Ipsos)

Best of the rest

John Keilman, Wall Street Journal: America is back in the factory business
Jon Stokes, City Journal: Open the AI doors
Michael Schaffer, Politico: Sorry, Jon Stewart — America needs Crossfire again
Amy Davidson Sorkin, New Yorker: How will Trump’s trial play on the campaign trail? 
Jason Willick, Washington Post: From Manhattan to Madison, a bruising week for American federalism
Ben Dreyfuss, Substack: Fine, I admit it: Elon Musk is ruining Twitter