The stakes of the Republican debate in Milwaukee

What, if anything, is at stake in tonight’s Republican primary debate?

The front-runner is skipping the event, instead providing voters with a pre-taped interview he did with Tucker Carlson, before heading to Fulton County, Georgia, tomorrow to turn himself in. As for the eight candidates who will be on the stage — and I don’t want to sound uncharitable here — none has shown any hint of being capable of making a dent in the former president’s commanding poll lead. Underscoring the extent to which this primary is proving to be a rerun of the Trump show, Fox…

What, if anything, is at stake in tonight’s Republican primary debate?

The front-runner is skipping the event, instead providing voters with a pre-taped interview he did with Tucker Carlson, before heading to Fulton County, Georgia, tomorrow to turn himself in. As for the eight candidates who will be on the stage — and I don’t want to sound uncharitable here — none has shown any hint of being capable of making a dent in the former president’s commanding poll lead. Underscoring the extent to which this primary is proving to be a rerun of the Trump show, Fox News will reportedly be playing clips of the former president as part of the debate.

And so it’s tempting to conclude that there’s little point in tonight’s showdown beyond entertainment for political obsessives. But that is underselling things — if only a little. For while Trump, with his gargantuan presence, undeniable political talents and enduring hold over a big chunk of the primary electorate, certainly feels like an inevitability, it is still five months until the voters actually start selecting the Republican candidate.

The task tonight is therefore the same for every serious candidate in this race: demonstrate that you are not an also-ran. Show those Republicans who want to move on from Trump that you can take him on. Articulate to those who like Trump but are open to other candidates that you aren’t the best of the rest but an upgrade on the last Republican president. And don’t be intimidated by Trump’s large base of support.

The tired metaphor for primary campaigns is lanes on a freeway. To go along with the imagery, there are only two lanes on this particular road: Trump and not Trump. Think of tonight’s debate as part of a selection process for the occupant of that second lane.

Ever since Trump bounced back from a brief post-midterm dip in popularity, it has been obvious that there could be no polite transition to a post-Trump Republican Party. Those who want to take the crown from him must take it. That means attacking him, not trying to outdo others in your loyalty to him. Do you actually want to be president? To avoid taking on Trump directly is to answer that question with a “no.”

Few candidates seem to appreciate the task in front of them. The most attacked candidate ahead of the debate hasn’t been the front-runner who is skipping the event, but Vivek Ramaswamy, the millennial entrepreneur who has seen a modest if unexpected polling bump in recent weeks. Taking on Trump is hard but important. Squabbling with other also-rans is easy but pointless. To do the former is to risk defeat. To do the latter is to guarantee it.

On our radar

PRIGOZHIN IN JET CRASH Ten people have been killed in a private jet crash north of Moscow. The Russian Civil Aviation Authority says that Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin was on the passenger list.

MARK THOMPSON TO CNN? Semafor’s Ben Smith reports that former New York Times CEO and BBC chief Mark Thompson is a leading candidate to take the helm at CNN. Chris Licht was fired from the role in June.

Doug Burgum maims himself playing basketball on eve of debate

Just call him Dunk Burgum!

North Dakota governor Doug Burgum suffered a late setback on the eve of the first Republican presidential debate. Burgum was whisked off to the ER Tuesday night, according to CNN’s Dana Bash, after “suffering an injury while playing a game of pick-up basketball with his staff.”

The rumor on the ground in Milwaukee is that Burgum has injured his Achilles, per Cockburn’s spies, throwing his appearance at tonight’s debate into doubt. Cockburn has reached out to the Burgum campaign for confirmation.

Billionaire Burgum made a surge for the debate stage thanks to a creative fundraising scheme that saw a $1 donation rewarded with a $20 gift card. Could that mega-splurge have been in vain?

There is frantic chatter online among the other 1 percenters that Burgum’s slot, should he be unable to attend, should be given to Larry Elder, who is currently suing the RNC to stop the debate after being denied qualification.

Cockburn wishes the North Dakota governor a speedy recovery — an Achilles tear can rule you out for nine months in the NFL, let’s hope the turnaround is quicker for pointless presidential runs.

–Cockburn

An update from our man on the ground in Milwaukee

I’m in the bar of the Hilton City Center, the Republican headquarters ahead of tonight’s first debate between eight candidates — though not the front-runner, Donald Trump. It is swelteringly hot — over a hundred degrees. I spy former Wisconsin governor Scott Walker catching up with someone through the window. Despite the Donald’s absence, the atmosphere is decidedly… Trumpy.

Upon arrival I caught a glimpse of two young men in MAGA hats wielding a placard of Ron DeSantis, his trademark white hurricane boots photoshopped to be thigh-length. Crossing the street on the way to get my credentials, two other Trump fans rush to avoid jaywalking. “Your social credit score just went down!” one joked to the other. The last-ditch drama: Governor Doug Burgum of North Dakota sustained an injury playing pick-up basketball with his staff Tuesday night and was rushed to the ER. Will he stand throughout the debate? Will anyone watch without the box-office appeal of Trump? Keep an eye out for my piece later to find out…

–Matt McDonald