Can Venezuela’s exodus become America’s gain?

Since the onset of Venezuela’s economic and humanitarian crisis back in 2015, around 6.8 million people have fled the country in search of refuge. The most popular destinations include neighboring countries Colombia and Brazil, as well as a host of other Latin American countries. Many who can afford it have also found safe passage to Europe. Yet many of Venezuela’s poorest and most disaffected are setting their sights on another destination entirely: the United States.

At the height of the country’s troubles between 2015 and 2018, the number of Venezuelans apprehended by US officials never exceeded 100 people a year. Fast forward to 2022, and more than 150,000 Venezuelans have arrived this year already.

Paradoxically, the economic situation in Venezuela has improved somewhat in recent years after the socialist dictator Nicolás Maduro introduced various reforms aimed at opening up its fledgling economy. Supermarkets are now fully stocked and US dollars flow freely. Last month, the president of the country’s central bank even reported first-quarter GDP growth of 17 percent, although such figures should be viewed with skepticism. Nevertheless, the country is in a better position than it was a few years ago. All of which raises the question: what is causing the sudden surge toward America’s southern border?

One of the reasons why Venezuelans are suddenly arriving en masse is that many have struggled to successfully rebuild their lives in neighboring countries. In the wake of the economic wreckage from the pandemic, many Venezuelans have been unable to integrate socially or economically into their new communities. Many are the victims of xenophobia, as locals grow frustrated with increased crime and prostitution as well as a downward impact on wages. There are also political factors. The most popular destination for Venezuelan migrants, Colombia, recently elected a former communist guerilla Gustavo Petro as its leader, while the socialist Lula Da Silva may soon reclaim power from conservative firebrand Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil.

Another cause behind the recent surge is the realization that not only is America massively richer than most other destinations, but it also provides a potentially safe and welcoming passage. Most of those arriving on the border are requesting political asylum, and given the despotism and gross human rights violations of the Maduro regime, their cases must be examined and considered carefully. After Donald Trump broke off all diplomatic relations in 2019, the US does not recognize the Venezuelan government. This means that unless migrants hold citizenship elsewhere, authorities are legally unable to send them back. During their long journey north, false rumors abound that Biden has opened the doors to all Venezuelans and offered to help them on arrival. There is currently no special sanctuary for Venezuelans, although Biden has extended TPS (Temporary Stay of Protection) for those living in the US.

The arrival of so many Venezuelans poses problems for both parties. Radically reducing illegal immigration has been a central tenet of the Republican platform since Donald Trump launched his campaign back in 2015. Eager to show their credentials as immigration hawks, Republican governors including Florida’s Ron DeSantis and Texas’s Greg Abbott have begun sending buses of migrants to heavily Democratic areas. This culminated recently in DeSantis’s recent decision to send a busload of confused Venezuelans to the exclusive island of Martha’s Vineyard. After local authorities activated the National Guard and had the migrants removed within 24 hours of their arrival, many conservatives celebrated it as a genius political move that exposed the hypocrisy of pro-immigration liberals living in predominantly white, suburban areas.

Yet DeSantis and other Republicans must handle the situation carefully. Perhaps the most interesting trend in American politics right now is the surge in support for the GOP from Hispanic voters, particularly those who have fled socialist regimes in Venezuela, Nicaragua, and Cuba. Some commentators, including Geraldo Rivera, have predicted that DeSantis will face a backlash from Venezuelans “outraged by his toying with the lives of those Venezuelan refugees he exploited.” Although recent polls indicate DeSantis is on course for a comfortable victory, it is hard to imagine that many Venezuelans in Florida would look approvingly at their compatriots being used as political pawns.

Similar concerns will also be motivating Democrats. For decades, Democratic candidates and politicians believed they could rely on the support of Hispanics whom they thought would reward them for their open-arms policy. This, in turn, became a self-fulfilling prophecy, as the logic went that allowing more immigration would mean more votes.

Yet as the party shifts further to the left, this is no longer the case, particularly among Venezuelans who understandably balk at any similarities between American politicians and the socialists who destroyed their homeland. According to a recent poll by The Wall Street Journal, Hispanics are now equally split between the two main parties, a reality that could have an enormous impact on the midterms. By allowing thousands of Venezuelans to enter the country where they may one day become citizens, Democratic strategists now realize that they may be building a future Republican voting bloc.

The great tragedy of the Venezuelan exodus is that with every passing day, this once thriving South American country is losing the very people it needs to help overthrow the Maduro regime and rebuild. The question Washington politicians must now answer is whether Venezuela’s loss can ever become America’s gain.

Ben Kew is editor-at-large at the Hispanic-focused publication El American and a former Latin American correspondent for Breitbart.